Serving the High Plains
Serving the High Plains
Watching the election returns trickle in as vote counts drag on is like waiting for a root canal to be over even with two people and four hands working as fast as care allows on a tooth the size of pea.
But all the networks and news organizations predict winners, usually quite accurately, before the counts are done. I’m writing this on Friday when we still didn’t know if we’d be congratulating a president or a president-elect.
So, how do the prognosticators practice their magic?
It’s not magic. It’s science, statistics and probability. Each network and news service has its own way of calculating a prediction.
Here are some examples, according to self-reporting on websites:
Fox News — According to Forbes magazine and the Los Angeles Times (I couldn’t find it from a Fox source), the Fox News Voter Analysis team combines calculations with the work done by The Associated Press (AP) and the University of Chicago. The AP and U of Chicago effort interviews 100,000 voters, including early voters, voters who vote by mail, and Election Day voters before Election Day. Over 20 years, The Fox system has chalked up a record of accurate first calls and against-the-grain predictions.
AP — In 2020, The AP VoteCast system interviewed 140,000 voters between Oct. 26 and Nov. 3. On election night, freelance reporters called in results from election centers. Then, data entry clerks evaluate that data, eventually entering it into computers. AP also feeds in the results of national and state surveys, voter registration demographics gathered before the election. This mountain of data is then subjected to statistical process called “multilevel regression with post-stratification.”
CNN — CNN’s process involves both real-time results and information from exit polls. The actual results, of course, get the highest weight. CNN’s model also accounts for where the votes are coming from geographically within the state, what types of votes are included in the count, and how much of the total vote does the count represent at any given time, CNN said on its website
NBC — The NBC News Exit Poll interviews voters leaving the polls on Election Day. In-person and telephone surveys of early voters are also conducted. By the end of Election Day, approximately 100,000 interviews will be conducted.
CBS — CBS takes a state-by-state approach, because the presidency is won in the Electoral College, not by the national popular vote, according to its website. CBS says it learned a hard lesson about reliance on national polling in 2016. They combine state-by-state surveys with voter files, U.S. Census data and trends. Then they subject that to the same multilevel regression with post-stratification method that AP uses.
ABC — ABC says its projections are based on the incoming results of the election as they’re uploaded and posted by county and state officials, but they’re also extrapolated from exit polls, party registrations and inferences from geographic and demographic data. “99.5% is the mathematical certainty that’s the standard they use,” said Rick Klein, ABC News political director.
Steve Hansen writes for Clovis Media Inc. Contact him at:
